Tailored to the questions you have to defend
- Gates: how can I increase certainty within existing time, budget and work to date?
- Revenue: offtakes, options and OTC contract structure?
- Feedstock: secured, contested, priced?
- Policy: durability, developments and risk?
- Bankability: how defensible is our investment case?
What you get
An independent, evidenced and certainty-graded assessment of the factors driving confidence and certainty in your project, and how they can be leveraged. Our Signals are prepared by our cross-disciplinary team of jet fuel and SAF market experts. We include our view of the reliability of the information you asked us to consider and of any we have brought in ourselves. Scope and focus agreed with you in advance.
Scope
We ask you to share the audience to which the Signal will travel, the format the Signal needs to be in, and the certainty and confidence improvements you are seeking to make.
Examples
- Competitive position: where your plant sits against existing and upcoming projects in the markets you intend to serve, and whether unsighted projects are likely, when and on what pathways.
- Revenue and offtake: how prices and alternative contracts could evolve, and how to improve your risk and cashflow profiles.
- Feedstock and inputs: security, cost and the competition for the same supply.
- Policy support: the mandates, credits and revenue mechanisms your case depends on, how durable they are, and how your local markets will be affected by global developments.
- Technology and scale-up: your acquisition plan, procurement assessment, and the commercial and Signal impact of alternative risk mitigation strategies.
- Capital and financing: construction cost, financing conditions and supporting reports to lenders or independent assessments on behalf of lenders and investors.
- Timing: technical, market and financial options for altering the timing and capital commitments across your decision gates.
- Horizon: lifecycle analysis, sustainability analysis, optionality to address potential new policies and fuels on the horizon.
What we provide
- An independent, evidence-based view of your decision.
- An assessment of the reliability of the information behind your case and our view of it, and of the nature of the uncertainty you face.
- The unknowns that matter identified and, where possible, bounded.
- Recommendations, where you request them.
Engagements range from single questions to due diligence, independent views for lenders, valuation and project restructuring.
For those you report to
Each Signal is prepared to be shared by you with your stakeholders, within our mutual NDA confidentiality bounds:
- A verdict, with the reasoning behind it.
- A central view with the range that forms part of your case.
- The developments that would change the central view.
- Graded information sources and stated assumptions.
- Under a non-disclosure agreement, a walk-through of the inputs, assumptions and results for your lender’s technical adviser.
- Our independent views and methodologies are applied consistently across all clients, with the same rigorous checks and audits so you and your counterparties work from the same basis.
Standards
- Independence: we decline engagements that would compromise it.
- Confidentiality: your information is used only for your work.
- Consistency: we underpin our work with finance, economics, physics, engineering and chemistry and policies across the global jet fuel supply market and its workings, which bind every actor in the same way but create different impacts and incentives at the individual level. Your tailored Signal is our insight into this ever-evolving complexity from your and your stakeholders’ perspectives.
- Verifiability: each Signal states what would change it, so it can be checked against events.
Introductory Signal
As an introduction to our work, we will prepare an initial Signal on a defined question of your choosing, at our expense. It sets out our view, the reasoning and evidence behind it, and a range of outcomes we see, in the most common form we deliver to any client.
It allows you, and those you report to, to assess the standard of our work against a decision that matters to you, before any mandate is agreed.
Provided under a mutual non-disclosure agreement; one per organisation. All rights reserved, including copyright, our discretion over engagements and the preservation of our independence.
Requests to action@circulairity.co.
Independent evidence on whether your plant can compete and pay back, for everyone who must back it