CirculAIRity Signals: a tested verdict for any jet fuel or SAF decision

Test the decision before you commit.

CirculAIRity Signals · from the molecule to the market

Which fuel, where, when, and at what cost and climate value. One suite of seven Signals, each ending in a verdict you can act on.

Request your complimentary Signal See the seven Signals
IN FORCEUK SAF mandate 10% by 2030
IN FORCEReFuelEU 6% in 2030, e-SAF 1.2%
1 OCT 2026Singapore SAF levy live
Q1 2027UK RCM first round
2027South Korea 1% blend
2027Brazil 1% → 10% by 2037
2027India 1% → 5% by 2030
2028British Columbia 1% → 3%
FY2030Japan 1% → 5% (draft)
TO 2029US 45Z up to $1.00/gal
What we do

Seven Signals. One verdict.

How Signals work
Market and economics · Intelligence before markets move
Market Signals

Where are jet fuel and SAF prices heading, and which shocks could move them?

Suppliers · refiners · traders · airlines

Available nowProject Signals

Can my plant compete and pay back, year by year?

Developers · plant owners · lenders

Available nowCapital Signals

Which market and pathway, and when?

Investors · lenders · funds

Available nowPolicy Signals

What will this rule do to supply, prices and investment, before it lands?

Regulators · ministries · obligated suppliers

Available now
Fuel and chemistry · Test the right fuels first
Production Signals

Which fuels meet my targets within the standard, and which should I test first?

Airframe and engine OEMs · refiners · SAF producers

Opening December 2026Logistics Signals

Will this fuel work from plant to wing?

Fuel suppliers · airports · wholesalers

Opening December 2026£/tCO2-WE Signals

What does each option cost per tonne of warming avoided?

Policymakers · airlines · OEMs

In development
Every Signal looks the same

Read one, read all seven

  1. The client's questionYour decision, in your words
  2. The verdictProceed · wait · move · stop
  3. Our central casePlus the sensitivities you want to test
  4. What would change itThe signposts, with dates
  5. How sure we areGraded sources, test record, error bands
  6. The next SignalThe paired question it raises

The scale behind every answer

23Jurisdictions
550+SAF plants tracked
208Pre-FID projects
11Policy markets 2025–30
2050Forecast horizon
Climate

57% contrails

At any given moment, contrails trap more heat than all the CO2 aviation has emitted since 1940.

Contrail cirrus was 57% of aviation's net effective radiative forcing in 2018 (best estimate, low confidence), against 34% for CO2 accumulated since 1940. Lee et al. 2021

The bigger part of aviation's warming
Policy clock

The window is closing

Q1 2027 · indicative
–

UK RCM first round

2027
–

Korea, Brazil, India start

1 Jan 2030
–

EU e-SAF sub-mandate

End 2029 · indicative
–

US 45Z horizon

Where SAF policy lands

MarketIn forceLevelPre-FID projectsPre-FID kt/yr
United Kingdom20252% → 10% by 203022869
European Union20252% → 6% by 2030737,735
Norway20272% → 6% by 2030428
Turkey2026~0.5% → 5% by 203000
SingaporeOct 20261% → 3–5% by 20302300
South Korea20271% → 3–5% by 20304711
India20271% → 5% by 203081,184
JapanFY20301% → 5% by FY2032131,099
Brazil20271% → 10% by 2037133,227
Canada (BC)20281% → 3% by 2030172,557
United Statesto 202945Z credit, up to $1.00/gal5215,575
Two doors in

Start with one question

Market door · with our compliments

Your complimentary Signal

One question on Market, Project, Capital or Policy. Central case and sensitivities, under a mutual NDA.

Request
Fuel door · opening December 2026

Fuel and chemistry Signals

Production and Logistics Signals open in December 2026. Register now and we will contact you first.

Register interest
Every month

Signals Snapshot

One chart, three findings, the paired Signal.

Get it

Every discipline, one team

Meet the team

Economics

Dr Michael Parmar

Fuels and supply chain

Alex Chikhani · Andy Spinks

Energy regulation

Dr Andy Samuel CBE · Dame Sue Gray

Engineering

Dame Sue Gray · Richard Price · Charles Ross-Smith

Chemistry and carbon

Dr Russ Wakeham

Finance

James Savage

Infrastructure

Jason Sprague

Aviation

Shashank Nigam · Helen Webb
2025Most Influential CEO, Sustainable Aviation (UK)
2025Cranfield University MoU
2026CirculAIRity Signals launched

Latest

All insights
Oct 2026

Introducing CirculAIRity Signals

 Climate

One unit for all of aviation's warming

 Myth or measure

Rerouting solves contrails
e-SAF development and project capital

Projects that can compete and pay back can reach capital

We have access to funds and funders with contingent commitments willing to consider specific projects.

Discuss a project

Bring us one decision

Book a briefing